Josh Allen Weekly: Entering 2024 Edition

Examining Josh Allen's 2023 metrics to identify growth areas for 2024.

Joshua Patrick Allen.

The Buffalo Bills have a special quarterback, and it’s an absolute joy to watch him play every single week. He’s a different animal, a unique talent in the history of the NFL. He doesn’t always color inside the lines, but one thing is sure—he produces. 

It’s unfortunate that some can’t appreciate his greatness. He’s been called overrated by at least one league executive and a random sampling of NFL Players revealed Allen as the league’s most overrated player. 

That’s poppycock. At this point, is it fair to consider if Josh Allen is actually underrated? You’d think the guy amid a streak of four consecutive 40+ touchdown seasons while quarterbacking a top-five offense every season since 2020 would be widely accepted as a top player in the NFL, but here we are. 

“Josh Allen Weekly” is part of my content plan for the 2024 season, so consider this an introduction. Each week, I will track metrics that measure Allen’s play and offer analysis. While we still have a few more sleeps until Allen debuts in 2024, let’s examine his metrics from 2023 and discuss growth areas for the coming season. These are the metrics that I will track and analyze throughout the year. 

As a reminder, these posts are free for Week One but will only be available for paid subscribers after. If you like what you see, subscribe now! 

Please note that all ranks consider the top 32 quarterbacks in terms of total dropbacks. All numbers unless otherwise noted are courtesy of the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I highly encourage you to check out the Data Suite! The metrics offered are exceptional, and you can get 25 percent off RIGHT NOW with my promo code Marino25. 

Basic Passing Numbers

KEY: ADOT = average depth of target, YAC% = percentage of yards that come after the catch, CATCH% = percentage of throws that are catchable, TWT% = turnover-worthy throws, ATT = average time to throw, CHK% = checkdown throw percentage. 

Allen is coming off another strong year of production, but the number that dominates the discussion is the interceptions, where only Sam Howell threw more. It doesn’t matter that Allen scored ten more touchdowns than any player in the league in 2023. Throwing three interceptions in the Monday Night opening loss to the Jets and finishing with 18 on the season fuels Allen’s doubters. 

As always, context is needed to fully understand any metric but that doesn’t help the talking heads on TV or the engagement farmers on social media. 

Allen more than makes up for any interceptions with touchdowns and Allen has been exceptional at not turning the ball over in the postseason when it matters most. Among quarterbacks with at least eight playoff starts, Allen has the second-best touchdown-to-turnover rate in NFL history. 

Allen plays the game a particular way. He has rare physical gifts and is capable of doing things on the football field that most other players can’t. Every elite quarterback must have a certain appetite for risk.

An unfortunate reality and something few people are willing to acknowledge is that Allen had poor interception luck last year which is evidenced by his turnover-worthy throw percentage. 3.1 percent of Allen’s passes were intercepted last year while his turnover-worthy throw rate was 3.3 percent. 

I’d love for Allen to throw a few fewer interceptions in 2024, but not at the expense of Josh being Josh. Allen’s passer rating, at a modest 92.2, is heavily skewed by the interceptions. 

Yards after catch has been a major conversation with the Bills offense for several years now, and Allen finished among the bottom ten in the NFL for YAC% (47.5 percent, Rank 22) in 2023. A lot is baked into yards after the catch including the style of offense a team runs, quarterback ball placement and the skill level of the weapons to produce post-catch. For Allen, all three things have worked against him, but I think we could see a jump in 2024. 

Joe Brady’s offense features more quick throws to get the ball out of Allen’s hands which relies upon yards after the catch. Allen shared that his offseason priority was fine-tuning his mechanics to improve ball placement. 

I don’t believe Allen will ever be a consistent “first-read” passer, but that number could come up in 2024 should Brady’s offense feature the amount of schemed throws I expect it to have. 

If there’s a component to Allen’s game that frustrates me, it’s his decision-making. Not necessarily decision-making as it relates to putting the ball in harm's way, but the “turndowns” within working a progression. Josh is known to “say no” to open reads that are earlier in the progression and he should take them more consistently. If that happens, his average time to throw will also come down. 

Deep Passing Numbers (Throws 20+ yards down the field)

KEY: DB% = dropback percentage, ANY/A = adjusted net yards per attempt.

Simply put, the Bills need more production in the vertical passing game. Last year’s team lacked weapons that can win down the field and I’m concerned that is still the case. I’d love to see Allen’s metrics come up in terms of CMP%, ANY/A and RATE. 

Do the Bills have the weapons to win down the field in place around Allen? It’s more than fair to wonder if they do. Don’t sleep on Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins as vertical threats. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is known for his ability to win down the field but I am not expecting much in the way of targets for him this season. In fact, don’t be surprised when he’s inactive most weeks. 

How quickly can Keon Coleman become a meaningful vertical threat? While he will never be a field-stretcher who gets behind the secondary, his ball skills, hands and body control make him an attractive option. 

Curtis Samuel is an intriguing player and I am eager to see what type of chances he gets to make plays down the field. Clocking a 4.31 40-yard dash, Samuel is by far the fastest receiver on the roster, but his production down the field has been limited to this point in his NFL career. That said, I’m not sure that’s entirely Samuel’s fault. He’s had five offensive coordinators in his seven NFL seasons while playing with a dreadful list of quarterbacks. 

What’s encouraging about the idea of Samuel winning vertically is that over the last four years when targeted 20+ yards down the field, Samuel has hauled in 20 of 29 targets. That’s an impressive catch rate.

While Allen’s vertical receivers are questionable, his deep accuracy can also be spotty. In 2023, his catchable ball percentage on deep throws was 52.9 percent which ranked 20th in the NFL. 

How the Bills find production in the vertical passing game is a notable storyline in 2024. 

Passing Under Pressure 

KEY: PSSACK% = pressure to sack percentage.

There’s always plenty of good and bad when it comes to Allen operating when pressured. His dynamic ability to make people miss and shake off defenders is dazzling and it leads to some jaw-dropping plays. His 9.9 percent pressure-to-sack ratio led the NFL in 2023. 

The metric that really stands out to me about Allen under pressure is that his check-down percentage was only 8.2 percent, which ranked 27th in the league. There are times when Allen makes it harder than it has to be when pressured and sometimes he just needs to dump the ball down. 

The other key talking point with Allen and pressure is that the pressure he faces is often his fault. There are times when the protection breaks down, but there are also times that the quarterback must account for overloads where the defense sends more than the protection scheme can block. There are other times when the quarterback holds onto the ball too long and faces pressure. Allen is guilty of both. 

Pro Football Focus tracks culpability as it relates to pressure and the Bills’ offensive line was responsible for 73.7 percent of the pressure Allen faced which ranked third-fewest in the NFL. PFF attributed 20.5 percent of the pressure to Allen, the fifth-highest mark among all quarterbacks in 2023. 

This is a growth area for Allen and the Bills’ offense in 2024. 

Play Action Passing

Locked On Bills listeners know all about my feelings regarding Josh Allen and play action passing: I WANT MORE OF IT!

Play action is an area where Allen clearly excels. PFF offers splits for quarterback metrics with and without play action and Allen’s numbers pop. His completion percentage comes up 5.5 percent, yards per attempt increases by 2.9 and his passer rating jumps 30 points. 

22.4 percent is just too low and I want to see that get a lot closer to 30 in 2024. A mid-season offensive coordinator shift definitely contributes to Allen's ranking 20th in terms of play action frequency. 

One of the critical factors in play action passing is marrying the run and pass schemes, which was difficult for Brady to do in-season while tweaking the scheme. With a full offseason to put his fingerprints on the scheme, I expect Allen to run more play action and for the results to be impressive. Play action is also a vehicle for the offense to find more explosive plays down the field. 

Screen Game

In my almost six years of hosting Locked On Bills, one of the most common areas I get asked about is the Bills’ screen game and I understand why. While opponents seem to find success hitting big plays against the Bills through screens, it rarely happens for the Bills on offense. 

I do expect a notable uptick in screen frequency and hopefully success for Allen in 2024. Last season under Ken Dorsey, the Bills ran screens on 6.9 percent of passing plays. That rate across 17 games would slot last in the entire NFL. When Brady took over, the screen percentage jumped to 11.4, which across 17 games would have ranked 11th. 

If the Bills can find more success in the screen game it can help unlock more within the offense and aid in Brady’s playcalling sequencing to make the unit even more difficult to defend.