10 prevailing thoughts about the Buffalo Bills entering 2024

This is what's burning up my mind as the season is set to kickoff.

Next week at this time, I hope you’ve heard me say the words “Happy Victory Monday, TO YOU”! Hopefully, I will say it 11, 12, 13 times or more before the Bills are done playing games in 2024. In case you aren’t familiar, that’s how I open the game reaction episodes for Locked On Bills following a Buffalo Bills win. 

For as much as I enjoy the offseason and all the roster construction dynamics to cover, the entire point of all of that is to produce on Sundays. The speculation is over and it’s time to play the games. 

Part of my Herd Mentality Substack plan for 2024 is to deliver a post-game article that summarizes my bigger-picture thoughts about the game. Without a game to reflect on, let’s consider my ten big-picture thoughts for the Bills as we count the days until kickoff. 

1. Truth About the Transition

You’ve heard all offseason about how the Bills have transitioned away from several key catalysts for the team’s success in the Beane/McDermott Era and it’s true. Pundits will point to it as the reason it could be a down year for the Bills and fans of AFC East Rivals will point to it as the reason why the Bills won’t win a fifth consecutive Division Title. 

But what’s forgotten is that the Bills aren’t moving away from the prime version of those players and if they were still around, questions would still exist. 

Stefon Diggs

There’s no denying that Diggs produced the greatest four-year stretch of receiver production in franchise history. That’s a given. But the vintage “Allen-to-Diggs” connection faded significantly down the stretch in 2024. 

I’m not saying that Diggs won’t be a productive player anymore in the NFL and that he couldn’t help the Bills in 2024, but let’s not also forget that Khalil Shakir had MORE yards on 60 (SIXTY) fewer targets over the final 12 games in 2024. That is insane! Oh, by the way, Dalton Kincaid led the team in receiving over that stretch. 

When targeting Diggs over the last 13 games, Allen’s passer rating was a measly 78.5.

The transition away from Diggs started last year. "More of the same” would be detrimental to the Bills' offense, especially given the target share Diggs commands. Netting the Vikings 2025 2nd-round pick, which is likely a top-45 selection, is an excellent return for Diggs, who turns 31 in November. The big hit for the Bills is the $31 million in dead cap accumulated in 2024 for trading him.

Gabe Davis

I honestly could care less about Davis' departure. He’s a limited player who struggles to separate, consistently catch the football and who produces nothing after the catch. Not to undervalue his effort on clear-out routes and as a blocker, but it would have disappointed me if the Bills signed him to the 3-year, $39 million contract that Jacksonville did. 

Davis had ZERO catches in five of his last nine games with the Bills. He had two or fewer receptions in 11 of 17 games in 2024. Allen had a putrid passer rating of 66.7 when targeting Davis over the final 12 games last season. But you know, the transition. 

Mitch Morse

A 77-game starter across five seasons for the Bills at center, Morse is probably the player I am most concerned about being gone. That said, the Bills made a calculated choice by releasing Morse, trading away Ryan Bates and sliding Connor McGovern over from left guard to center and David Edwards stepping in as the new starter at left guard. 

Buffalo’s offensive line was a strength in 2023 and continuing with the group in 2024 would have yielded plenty of excitement. While there’s still plenty to be excited about with the group and offensive line coach Aaron Kromer’s influence on the unit, it has to come together after already coming together. 

But even when Morse signed in Buffalo in 2019 at 27 years old, the concerns over concussions were already well-documented. Morse only missed five of a possible 82 games in Buffalo, but the worry over when the subsequent concussion would come never disappeared.

2024 marks Morse’s age 32 season and I suspect he will continue to be a solid starter, but it’s not without legitimate questions. Will he stay healthy? Will age catch up to him as a center whose game is predicated on athleticism? Moving away from Morse was inevitable at some point, and now, the Bills need to be right about the new direction they choose. 

Tre’Davious White 

I am going to miss Tre White. The first four seasons of his career were exceptional and he was firmly one of the league’s best corners. Unfortunately, he’s suffered two massive injuries in the last three seasons, which clouds his future as he’s set to turn 30 in January. 

A torn ACL in Week 12 of 2021 led to a slow return in 2022 when White wasn’t able to return until Week 11. Then, in Week Four of 2023, White suffered a torn Achilles, which he’s attempting to recover from in 2024.  

I wish White well, but there is plenty to be concerned about regarding his performance in 2024 and beyond.

Jordan Poyer & Micah Hyde 

When I think about the Bills ending the playoff drought in 2017 and then finishing in the top 10 defensively in five of the next six seasons while completely changing the culture in Buffalo, I attribute a significant amount of that to the impact of Poyer and Hyde. 

We were spoiled to enjoy their contributions together for so long, but all good things must come to an end. There’s no denying that both players slowed down significantly over the last two seasons and their best football is clearly behind them. 

Should Poyer and Hyde have returned in 2024, with both 33 years old, their value would lie in their leadership, intangibles and knowledge of the defensive system. Simultaneously, questions about how much is left in the tank would also be present. 

If there’s anything that’s true about Sean McDermott, it’s that he’s exceptional at developing safeties. He’s been wildly successful at every stop of his career and it’s time for a new chapter in Buffalo. Let’s be honest, Poyer and Hyde haven’t been Poyer and Hyde since 2021. 

The bottom line is that the transition was necessary, and it doesn’t necessarily point to a regression. This is life in the NFL. 

2. Josh Allen is Awesome

Josh Allen is THAT DUDE and he’s the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. Don’t forget that. There’s plenty that has to come together for the 2024 Bills, but I wouldn’t doubt Josh Allen. At every point in his football journey, he’s proved his doubters wrong and this is just the next opportunity. 

Headlines this offseason about Josh Allen being overrated came from both a league executive and players. General manager Brandon Beane addressed it perfectly when he said: “There’s idiots everywhere.”

Allen is an elite NFL quarterback and his existence means the Bills are a contender regardless of who else is on the team. If you’re searching for optimism about the Bills in 2024, look no further than the guy who plays the most important position in sports.

3. Sean McDermott Sets the Floor

I know the opinions of Sean McDermott are all over the place. Regardless of your opinion of McDermott, he’s been incredibly successful in Buffalo. Here’s a quick snapshot of his top accomplishments:

• Came to the Bills after a 17-year playoff drought which he ended in Year 1

• Best winning percentage in franchise history

• 4 consecutive AFC East Titles (2020-23) after not winning it since 1995

• 5 consecutive playoff appearances, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL

• Has won at least one playoff game in each of the last four years - only Andy Reid has also done that

Tell a Bills fan in 2017 when McDermott was hired that all of that would be true and I’d bet everyone would say “sign me up”. Tell a Bills fan that entering 2024 and an emptiness comes with it. 

I get it. I just said it: Josh Allen is awesome. Arguably, more should be expected when a unicorn quarterback like Allen leads the offense. 

The reality is that the Buffalo Bills are a franchise that is endeared by its community, has never won a Super Bowl, experienced a 17-year playoff drought and has a quarterback like Allen that can lead the team to the promised land but hasn’t been there. Those dynamics lead to the conversations that exist right now around McDermott. 

But when I think about the 2024 Bills, McDermott sets the floor for the operation. Remember 2017? The year the NFL world thought the Bills were tanking? Well, that team tanked their way to the playoffs. And that’s before Josh Allen arrived. By the way, the Bills haven’t lost a regular-season game since November of 2021 by more than one possession. 

The Bills are a competitive team week in and week out, and their head coach has A LOT to do with that. 

4. Developing Young Talent

The NFL offseason is also “list season” when all the analysts rank everything imaginable regarding the NFL to help us get to the next season. The highlight of those lists is the NFL100, where the NFL players vote on the best 100 players. I have plenty of questions about the balloting process and candidly, I don’t put much stock into the end result. 

After the NFL100 was revealed, many noticed the Buffalo Bills' lack of representation. On Locked On NFL Scouting, Kyle Crabbs and I put together our own list of the top 100 players in the NFL, and like the NFL100, we only had three players from the Bills: Josh Allen, Matt Milano and Dion Dawkins. 

The Bills have a number of young players who are on the brink of being in the NFL100 conversation, and that’s a good thing! Developing young talent like Khalil Shakir, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ed Oliver, Gregory Rousseau, Terrel Bernard and Christian Benford—not to mention the 2024 Draft class—helps form the revamped nucleus of this roster. 

The next chapter of the Josh Allen era of Buffalo Bills football is upon us, and the discussion really ought to shift from focusing on the players the Bills transitioned away from to the bright young core that is developing right before our eyes! 

5. Ray Davis is Coming

James Cook enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 and he put up impressive numbers. Here’s how he did:

• 6th in yards from scrimmage (1,567 yards)

• 4th in rushing yards (1,122 yards)

• 8th in receiving yards among (RBs 445 yards)

• 10th in touches (281 touches)

Cook is entering his third season and the Bills are expected to again be a highly productive rushing offense. Many expect him to build on his sophomore year, but I have my doubts.

Cook is a good player and I fear that some may not understand my critiques of him, but his limitations are very real. Cook is an elusive runner with a slashing style, but he lacks physicality and post-contact production, struggles in pass protection, has fumbling issues and drops too many passes. Let’s examine some of those numbers courtesy of the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I highly encourage you to check out the Data Suite! The metrics offered are exceptional, and you can get 25 percent off RIGHT NOW with my promo code Marino25. 

• 2.38 yards after contact per attempt (11th lowest in NFL min. 100 carries)

• 2.35 yards before contact per attempt (3rd highest in NFL min. 100 carries)

  • Versus 7+ man boxes, he had the 5th lowest yards after contact per attempt (2.18) but had the 3rd highest yards before contact per attempt (2.13)

• Only saw 16.7% of his targets come on designed plays. 6th lowest in the NFL among RBs

  • On designed targets, he had the 8th lowest yards per target (4.33) among RBs

• 12% drop rate - 2nd highest among RBs with over 50 targets

• 2nd most fumbles among RBs with at least 150 carries 

Respectfully, those numbers mean SO MUCH MORE than the raw production I listed first. 

Enter Ray Davis, the Bills 2024 fourth-round pick. 

In many ways, Davis is a different style of runner than Cook, which actually makes them a good complementary duo. Davis is 5-foot-8 and 215 pounds, which gives him a dense build and low center of gravity that helps him sustain momentum through contact and pick up additional yardage. By comparison, Cook is 5-foot-11 and 199 pounds, which is a narrow build that doesn’t lend favorably to post-contact production. 

Davis’ physicality as a runner shined in college and it popped in the preseason. You can “feel” his pads and power as a runner. By comparison, Cook doesn’t consistently run with the physicality expected from a high-volume NFL starter. 

In addition to being a more physical runner, Davis has far more upside in pass protection and is an outstanding receiving threat.

Cook can provide an exciting element to the Bills’ offense, but don’t be surprised when Davis eats considerably into his opportunities. I’d be stunned if Cook replicates 280 touches in 2024.

6. Defensive Line Game-Wrecker

For all the talk about a No. 1 wide receiver, I am more concerned about the Bills not having a No. 1 pass rusher. The Bills have several good players, but do they have a GREAT one? A dude who can take over in critical moments? A dude that keeps offensive coordinators up at night figuring out how to scheme against him?  

A DUDE THAT CAN SACK PATRICK MAHOMES IN THE PLAYOFFS!?!?

• Patrick Mahomes vs the Bills in the regular season:

  • 1-3, 63.8 comp %, 277 Pass YPG, 7 TDs, 5 INTs, 85.1 PR

• Patrick Mahomes vs the Bills in the playoffs:

  • 3-0, 75.2 comp %, 306 Pass YPG, 8 TDs, 0 INTs, 126.6 PR

  • The Bills have sacked Mahomes a total of 3 times in the 3 playoff losses. 

  • Mahomes has 0 (ZERO) turnover-worthy plays in his 3 playoff wins vs Buffalo.

I know the Bills have good pressure rates and collected 54 sacks in 2023 (No. 4 in NFL), but where was it when it mattered most in the playoffs? Once again, it was MIA. 

If the Bills want to get over the hump, the defense has to show up against top QBs in the playoffs. If the defense wants to get over the hump against top QBs in the playoffs, someone on this defensive line has to show up. 

7. Tyler Bass

I am very concerned about Tyler Bass and him costing the Bills wins in 2024. 

After strong seasons in 2021 and 2022, he fell off the rails in 2023, but not after a strong start. In the first six games of the season, Bass went 10-for-10 on field goals and 18-for-18 on extra points. 

But then:

• Bass missed twice in an unnecessarily dramatic 14-9 win over the Giants

• Missed from 42 in a loss to the Patriots

• Had two misses in the overtime loss to the Eagles

• Had his first career miss inside of 30 yards

• Was 56% (5-for-9) on kicks from 40-49 after being 82% for his career prior to 2023

• Went 2-for-5 in the playoffs with misses from 49, 42 and 44

Bass’ struggles continued throughout training camp and the preseason. Kickers tend to be good until they are not and there’s plenty to be concerned about Bass getting back on track. Unfortunately, moving on from Bass is complicated for the Bills as Bass enters Year 1 of a 4-year, $20 million contract extension. 

If the Bills released Bass, the team would accumulate $7.4 million in dead cap space, $3.2 million of which can be kicked into 2025. The Bills currently don’t have the cap flexibility to cover those costs, not to mention the necessity of finding a new kicker. 

The best outcome is for Bass to be the kicker the Bills are paying him to be and I’m nervous that will be the case. 

8. The Safety Position

I am confident and not confident all at once when it comes to the Bills’ safety position. I don’t wish Hyde and Poyer were still around; I just want to see the new tandem come together. 

Who is the new safety duo? I wish I could tell you! 

Taylor Rapp is locked into one spot and I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. Rapp had a bumpy first year in Buffalo, but he played much better later in the season. Additionally, his role evolved into something the Bills didn’t plan on due to Matt Milano's injury. He did gain valuable experience in the scheme, and the Bills’ coaching staff raves about him. 

But who is his running mate? Unfortunately, the contenders have been banged up for a good part of Training Camp and Preseason.  

McDermott said the plan was for free agent signee Mike Edwards to take the starter reps during the spring, but he missed all of OTAs working back from a shoulder injury. Then, Edwards missed most of camp with a hamstring ailment. 

McDermott said the team drafted Cole Bishop to eventually be a starter, but a shoulder injury kept him out for the preseason. 

Amid Edwards and Bishop working back from injuries, Damar Hamlin emerged as a serious threat to start, but he then suffered a hamstring injury that has put him on the sideline. 

While the group is getting healthy as Week One approaches, they don’t have nearly as many reps together entering the year as the team surely hoped for and the competitive opportunities to win a starting job were severely limited. 

Hyde and Poyer weren’t only playmakers, but they were also play taker awayers. I don’t think that’s a word, but their ability to stay leveraged vertically and disguise coverage intentions reduced the amount of big plays the Bills’ defense gave up down the field. Let’s hope we don’t suddenly see coverage leaks and blown assignments. 

The Bills' defense is engineered to force opponents to sustain drives to score and limit big plays. However, that could be compromised if the safety tandem doesn’t come together. 

The good news is McDermott’s off-the-charts track record with safety development and that’ll be tested in 2024 with a new duo. 

9. AFC East

I expect the AFC East race to be tight again this year, as it has been for the last two seasons when the Bills played the Dolphins late in the season both years in tight ball games that ultimately went in Buffalo’s favor. 

Miami blew a three-game lead in the Division with five games remaining in 2024. They’ve revamped several pieces of their roster, most notably improving the ancillary weapons in the offense to build things up around superstars Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The addition of Jonnu Smith at tight end unlocks a new layer to their offense that didn’t exist previously under head coach Mike McDaniel. Jaylen Wright is another explosive runner who adds to the backfield and enables Miami to fully utilize the versatility of De’Von Achane. There are certainly questions about the offensive line, but to me, Miami is more dangerous on offense than they were a year ago. Not to mention it’s Year Three for Tua Tagovaolia with McDaniel in a timing-based offense.

The Jets’ hype train never stops, despite the results never following. But the Jets are currently the betting favorites to win the Division, which obviously stems from the return/arrival of Aaron Rodgers, OL upgrades and the Jets’ defense. 

I’m not sure about the Jets, but they have won seven games in each of the past two seasons with an embarrassing OL and QB situation because of the defense. While I don’t think the defense has the same depth it has enjoyed in recent years, the offense is going to be notably better should it remain healthy. That said, relying on the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tyron Smith, Mike Williams and Alijah Vera-Tucker to be healthy is a risky proposition. Plus, it’s been a while since Rodgers has played at a high level, not to mention he’s 40 and coming off an Achilles injury. 

I am picking the Bills to win the AFC East again in 2024, but I expect it to be tight. 

10. The Schedule

The Bills' schedule in 2024 is tough, and they will need to play consistently good football to achieve their goals. The team cannot have the lulls that have crept up in past years under McDermott. 

Last year the Bills were 6-6 and needed to win out to win the Division. In 2021, the Bills were 7-6 and again needed to go on a run late in the season to make the playoffs. In 2019, the Bills lost 3 of 4 entering the playoffs. In 2017, the Bills started 5-2 before dropping four out of five, falling to 6-6 and needing help to the playoffs in the last week of the season. Thank you, Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd. 

Despite the roster's newness (38 percent turnover from 2023), Buffalo must hit its stride early in 2024 and maintain it for the season. 

It’s probably an oversimplification, but here’s a reasonable pathway to 11 wins which puts the Bills in the playoffs:

• Go 4-2 in Division games

• Beat the Cardinals and Titans at home

• Go 5-4 in the rest of the games 

  • Home: Jaguars, Chiefs and 49ers

  • Road: Ravens, Texans, Seahawks, Colts, Rams and Lions

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